Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.12 – 28.4

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

169 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 453.6 ±11.7

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 79.03Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 15.24Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 92.85Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 272.3 ±14.5

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 18.22Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 5Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 5.18Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3465, 5968, 1939

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.1 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3465, 5968, 1939

Auto

19.2 10%

Teleop

123.8 68%

Endgame

40.2 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2359, 6026, 10377

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.4 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2359, 6026, 10377

Auto

15.4 44%

Teleop

16.1 46%

Endgame

3.5 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.35 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score187.1pts

Blue projected score28.4pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 158.7
Score range: 5–210
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 125.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

453.6Season APEX272.3

19.2Auto15.4

123.8Teleop16.1

40.2Endgame3.5

59Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	8
teleop	89	8
endgame	46	16
foul	0	0
total	169	32

Result

Final score

169 – 32

Prediction correct · off by 10.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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