Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.91 – 172.51

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.3 ±15.6

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 35.41Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3247Robopack

Provisional

Season APEX 5Event APEX -3.3Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 95.8Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.4 ±12.2

2373The Crickets

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 108.32Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 59.49Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 4.7Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3465, 3247, 2718

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 3465, 3247, 2718

Auto

27.4 22%

Teleop

65.6 52%

Endgame

32.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2373, 6391, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.5 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2373, 6391, 1209

Auto

41.1 24%

Teleop

97.7 57%

Endgame

31.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score127.9pts

Blue projected score172.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -44.6
Score range: 100–201
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 153.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.3Season APEX397.4

27.4Auto41.1

65.6Teleop97.7

32Endgame31.6

67Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	23
teleop	67	108
endgame	50	24
foul	0	5
total	137	160

Result

Final score

137 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 10.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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