Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.26 – 0

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.7 ±11.9

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 15.93Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 121.29Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 24.04Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 369.7 ±11.6

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX -0.46Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX -1.98Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX -9.37Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2165, 4635, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2165, 4635, 2333

Auto

41.3 27%

Teleop

75.7 49%

Endgame

37.9 24%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5550, 2183, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

-11.8 pts

~0.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 5550, 2183, 2341

Auto

16.7 0%

Teleop

-22.2 100%

Endgame

-11.4 67%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.3pts

Blue projected score-11.8pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161.3
Score range: -22–183
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 122.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

484.7Season APEX369.7

41.3Auto16.7

75.7Teleop-22.2

37.9Endgame-11.4

125Consistency223

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	15
teleop	102	92
endgame	49	34
foul	15	20
total	227	161

Result

Final score

227 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 113.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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