Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.39 – 58.2

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.2 ±15.6

5889Commandobots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 5.86Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 62.28Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 40.25Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169 ±16.5

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 38.04Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3247Robopack

Provisional

Season APEX 5Event APEX 3.72Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 16.44Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5889, 2383, 1806

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5889, 2383, 1806

Auto

28.7 27%

Teleop

45.0 42%

Endgame

34.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3179, 3247, 3526

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.2 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 3247, 3526

Auto

15.4 27%

Teleop

14.2 24%

Endgame

28.5 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.4pts

Blue projected score58.2pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 50.2
Score range: 36–130
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.2Season APEX169

28.7Auto15.4

45Teleop14.2

34.3Endgame28.5

92Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	9
teleop	46	44
endgame	27	33
foul	0	0
total	134	86

Result

Final score

134 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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