Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

5.94 – 113.69

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

149 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 134.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.5 ±12.8

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -9.22Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 0.7Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 14.46Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.4 ±13.5

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 31.54Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 9.39Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 72.76Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3160, 4005, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

5.9 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 3160, 4005, 6391

Auto

8.7 100%

Teleop

9.7 100%

Endgame

-12.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1561, 31, 3931

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 1561, 31, 3931

Auto

22.3 19%

Teleop

45.2 39%

Endgame

47.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.93 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score5.9pts

Blue projected score113.7pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -107.7
Score range: -16–136
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 121.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.5Season APEX403.4

8.7Auto22.3

9.7Teleop45.2

-12.8Endgame47.6

75Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	50
teleop	65	150
endgame	45	39
foul	5	0
total	149	239

Result

Final score

149 – 239

Prediction correct · off by 134.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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