Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.78 – 181.45

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

147 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 464.3 ±11.7

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 34.3Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 27.43Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 32.05Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 518.3 ±10.4

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 29.82Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 142.19Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 9.44Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4523, 4522, 1209

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 4523, 4522, 1209

Auto

40.1 47%

Teleop

16.2 19%

Endgame

29.7 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6424, 1706, 10661

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.5 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6424, 1706, 10661

Auto

29.9 16%

Teleop

100.5 55%

Endgame

53.7 29%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.06 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score93.8pts

Blue projected score181.5pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -87.7
Score range: 73–202
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 117.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

464.3Season APEX518.3

40.1Auto29.9

16.2Teleop100.5

29.7Endgame53.7

91Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	40
teleop	93	160
endgame	3	62
foul	5	0
total	147	262

Result

Final score

147 – 262

Prediction correct · off by 66.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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