Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.54 – 12

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 436.9 ±11.2

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 76.96Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX 11.84Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4206Robo Vikes

Season APEX 201.8Event APEX 19.74Rank 40Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.9 ±13.9

6809Aviators

Season APEX 65.2Event APEX 12.58Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 76

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX -5.19Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2333Sapulpa Robotics Team

Season APEX 143Event APEX 4.61Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4256, 2359, 4206

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4256, 2359, 4206

Auto

31.5 30%

Teleop

38.8 36%

Endgame

36.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6809, 5550, 2333

/ 100 compat

Projected

12 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6809, 5550, 2333

Auto

-5.9 0%

Teleop

0.8 8%

Endgame

15.2 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.5pts

Blue projected score12pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.5
Score range: -9–130
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

436.9Season APEX392.9

31.5Auto-5.9

38.8Teleop0.8

36.3Endgame15.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	17
teleop	90	26
endgame	28	16
foul	5	0
total	162	59

Result

Final score

162 – 59

Prediction correct · off by 50.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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