Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

24.87 – 152.6

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.8 ±15

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX -15.94Rank 44Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 24.35Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 16.46Rank 45Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 434.9 ±13

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX -10.22Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 63.85Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 98.97Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 34, 2165, 9551

/ 100 compat

Projected

24.9 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 34, 2165, 9551

Auto

5.9 23%

Teleop

7.7 30%

Endgame

12.0 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9472, 3465, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.6 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9472, 3465, 4635

Auto

32.5 23%

Teleop

59.2 41%

Endgame

52.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.74 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score24.9pts

Blue projected score152.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -127.7
Score range: 4–174
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.8Season APEX434.9

5.9Auto32.5

7.7Teleop59.2

12Endgame52.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	52
teleop	9	170
endgame	2	44
foul	15	0
total	44	266

Result

Final score

44 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 66.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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