Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.66 – 160.34

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

85 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.2 ±11.6

1785Blue Springs Robocats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 58.79Rank 36Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX 3.45Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 12.42Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.2 ±12.4

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 23.8Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 87.43Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 49.11Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1785, 2341, 6391

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.7 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1785, 2341, 6391

Auto

25.1 35%

Teleop

44.3 62%

Endgame

2.5 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 31, 2383, 5968

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 31, 2383, 5968

Auto

31.1 20%

Teleop

91.1 59%

Endgame

32.7 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score74.7pts

Blue projected score160.3pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.7
Score range: 54–181
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 117.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.2Season APEX453.2

25.1Auto31.1

44.3Teleop91.1

2.5Endgame32.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	32
teleop	43	35
endgame	20	4
foul	0	0
total	85	71

Result

Final score

85 – 71

Prediction missed · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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