Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.36 – 132.75

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

97 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 72.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 284.1 ±12.2

6424Stealth Panther Robotics

Season APEX 98.5Event APEX 19.83Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 2.77Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 42.76Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.4 ±17

3247Robopack

Provisional

Season APEX 5Event APEX 40.18Rank 41Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 49.88Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4005Hostile Gato Robotics

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 42.69Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6424, 2183, 1806

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6424, 2183, 1806

Auto

22.6 35%

Teleop

38.1 58%

Endgame

4.6 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3247, 2352, 4005

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.8 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 3247, 2352, 4005

Auto

14.1 11%

Teleop

60.4 46%

Endgame

57.9 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.4pts

Blue projected score132.8pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -67.4
Score range: 43–155
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 121.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

284.1Season APEX137.4

22.6Auto14.1

38.1Teleop60.4

4.6Endgame57.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	10
teleop	53	0
endgame	18	5
foul	0	5
total	97	20

Result

Final score

97 – 20

Prediction missed · off by 72.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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