Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

198.29 – 156.15

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

227 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 647.5 ±11.2

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 135.66Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 28.08Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4766Team SCREAM Jr.

Season APEX 206.1Event APEX 34.55Rank 7Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.3 ±11.7

3179The A.N.T.

Season APEX 82.6Event APEX 56.31Rank 27Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 25.39Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3931Cockadoodle Dominators

Season APEX 225.5Event APEX 74.45Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1706, 6026, 4766

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.3 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1706, 6026, 4766

Auto

23.9 12%

Teleop

106.0 54%

Endgame

65.9 34%

Strengths

· 1706 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3179, 10661, 3931

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3179, 10661, 3931

Auto

19.4 12%

Teleop

86.9 55%

Endgame

51.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score198.3pts

Blue projected score156.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.1
Score range: 135–219
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

647.5Season APEX400.3

23.9Auto19.4

106Teleop86.9

65.9Endgame51.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	27
teleop	153	62
endgame	41	36
foul	0	0
total	227	125

Result

Final score

227 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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