Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.6 – 64.39

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 36 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 255.3 ±13.3

1209RoboHornets

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 38.43Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1561Roboducks

Season APEX 103.6Event APEX 42.8Rank 10Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2359RoboLobos

Season APEX 85.2Event APEX -2.63Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.3 ±15.8

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 38.63Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 46.9Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3892Roboponies

Provisional

Season APEX 83.9Event APEX -21.14Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1209, 1561, 2359

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1209, 1561, 2359

Auto

16.6 22%

Teleop

36.8 49%

Endgame

21.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4522, 2773, 3892

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.4 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4522, 2773, 3892

Auto

23.9 38%

Teleop

34.3 54%

Endgame

4.9 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score78.6pts

Blue projected score64.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.2
Score range: 43–100
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 215 vs event baseline 119.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

255.3Season APEX488.3

16.6Auto23.9

36.8Teleop34.3

21.7Endgame4.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	51
teleop	51	29
endgame	41	15
foul	0	5
total	115	100

Result

Final score

115 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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