Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 0

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 66 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 339.4 ±14.1

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX -32.48Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2165BisonBots

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 9.78Rank 25Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5550BRONChO BOTS

Season APEX 184.7Event APEX -12.71Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.1 ±15.1

2457The Law

Season APEX 73Event APEX -32.85Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 22.05Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5889Commandobots

Provisional

Season APEX 52.4Event APEX 2.79Rank 28Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9472, 2165, 5550

/ 100 compat

Projected

-35.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 9472, 2165, 5550

Auto

1.1 0%

Teleop

-30.4 94%

Endgame

-2.9 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2457, 5968, 5889

/ 100 compat

Projected

-8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 2457, 5968, 5889

Auto

11.0 0%

Teleop

-16.0 100%

Endgame

-3.7 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score-35.4pts

Blue projected score-8pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: -22–22
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 132 vs event baseline 123.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

339.4Season APEX267.1

1.1Auto11

-30.4Teleop-16

-2.9Endgame-3.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	31
teleop	11	30
endgame	18	27
foul	0	0
total	44	88

Result

Final score

44 – 88

Prediction correct · off by 66 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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