Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

7.23 – 73.92

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

31 – 26

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218 ±13.9

10377Aughtonauts

Season APEX 73.3Event APEX 27.27Rank 46Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX -14.24Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2341Sprockets

Season APEX 69Event APEX -5.8Rank 20Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.9 ±13.5

4523MCROBO

Season APEX 87.7Event APEX 56.56Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6391Ursuline Bearbotics

Season APEX 180Event APEX 31.42Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

34Rockets

Season APEX 95.2Event APEX -14.06Rank 44Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10377, 3160, 2341

/ 100 compat

Projected

7.2 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 10377, 3160, 2341

Auto

22.0 100%

Teleop

-1.5 0%

Endgame

-16.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4523, 6391, 34

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.9 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 4523, 6391, 34

Auto

15.1 19%

Teleop

46.4 59%

Endgame

16.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.96 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score7.2pts

Blue projected score73.9pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.7
Score range: -16–97
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 57 vs event baseline 130.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218Season APEX362.9

22Auto15.1

-1.5Teleop46.4

-16.2Endgame16.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	17
teleop	7	4
endgame	5	5
foul	5	0
total	31	26

Result

Final score

31 – 26

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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