Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.43 – 60.6

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 172 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.7 ±12.4

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 8.86Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2352Metal Mayhem

Season APEX 61.6Event APEX 12Rank 39Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 15.57Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588.5 ±11

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 15.84Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2383Ninjineers

Season APEX 237.2Event APEX 12.19Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1939THE KUHNIGHTS

Season APEX 214Event APEX 32.57Rank 4Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10661, 2352, 4256

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10661, 2352, 4256

Auto

18.2 52%

Teleop

9.9 28%

Endgame

6.8 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 4500, 2383, 1939

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4500, 2383, 1939

Auto

16.1 27%

Teleop

31.3 53%

Endgame

11.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score36.4pts

Blue projected score60.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.2
Score range: 15–82
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 441 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.7Season APEX588.5

18.2Auto16.1

9.9Teleop31.3

6.8Endgame11.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	38
teleop	87	171
endgame	72	41
foul	0	20
total	171	270

Result

Final score

171 – 270

Prediction correct · off by 172 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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