Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.14 – 45.09

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 64.9 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 271.7 ±13.9

31Jenks Prime Movers

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 22.86Rank 42Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3526PrepaTec - Blue Ignition

Season APEX 81.4Event APEX 18.57Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 21.71Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.8 ±12.4

3465The Omega Factor

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 30.36Rank 8Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 21.71Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX -6.98Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 31, 3526, 2183

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 31, 3526, 2183

Auto

19.4 31%

Teleop

23.2 38%

Endgame

19.1 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3465, 4522, 6026

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3465, 4522, 6026

Auto

15.7 35%

Teleop

21.8 48%

Endgame

7.7 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score63.1pts

Blue projected score45.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18
Score range: 25–83
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

271.7Season APEX521.8

19.4Auto15.7

23.2Teleop21.8

19.1Endgame7.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	45
teleop	32	111
endgame	14	17
foul	0	0
total	65	173

Result

Final score

65 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 64.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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