Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.8 – 84.4

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

15 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 298.7 ±14.5

6026Tiger Strike

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 20.69Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9551Tiger

Season APEX 109.9Event APEX 12.83Rank 45Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9472K2C

Season APEX 75Event APEX -3.72Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 239.6 ±14.5

2773IronDogz

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 56.35Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1806S.W.A.T.

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX -0.19Rank 29Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3160F. R. O. G. - FIRST Robotics Organization of Grove

Season APEX 75.7Event APEX 28.24Rank 34Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6026, 9551, 9472

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 6026, 9551, 9472

Auto

9.3 33%

Teleop

11.4 40%

Endgame

7.5 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2773, 1806, 3160

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 2773, 1806, 3160

Auto

27.2 34%

Teleop

31.5 39%

Endgame

21.9 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score29.8pts

Blue projected score84.4pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.6
Score range: 2–112
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-17
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 94 vs event baseline 153.5.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

298.7Season APEX239.6

9.3Auto27.2

11.4Teleop31.5

7.5Endgame21.9

22Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	21
teleop	6	45
endgame	1	13
foul	0	0
total	15	79

Result

Final score

15 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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