Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

418.32 – 241.14

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

381 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 731.3 ±9.8

1706Ratchet Rockers

A+

Season APEX 327.6Event APEX 187.16Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 37.81Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 193.35Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 479.6 ±11

4256Cyborg Cats

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 95.96Rank 12Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2718Team OKC e'possums (Σ 1/n! x 10³)

Season APEX 192.4Event APEX 100.69Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4500RoboHounds

Season APEX 137.3Event APEX 44.49Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1706, 5968, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

418.3 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 1706, 5968, 4635

Auto

86.7 21%

Teleop

240.4 58%

Endgame

86.2 21%

Strengths

· 4635 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4256, 2718, 4500

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.1 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4256, 2718, 4500

Auto

55.8 24%

Teleop

127.6 55%

Endgame

48.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score418.3pts

Blue projected score241.1pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample184alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 177.2
Score range: 214–445
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 483 vs event baseline 152.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

731.3Season APEX479.6

86.7Auto55.8

240.4Teleop127.6

86.2Endgame48

0Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	28
teleop	206	63
endgame	75	11
foul	30	0
total	381	102

Result

Final score

381 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 88.2 pts

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