Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.96 – 203.36

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.8 ±12.4

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 84.35Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX -5.23Rank 29Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 124.84Rank 7Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.6 ±12.7

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 105.01Rank 11Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 22.87Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 75.48Rank 12Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2603, 8145, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

204 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2603, 8145, 48

Auto

41.4 20%

Teleop

107.3 53%

Endgame

54.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4121, 10011, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4121, 10011, 5811

Auto

32.8 17%

Teleop

114.2 58%

Endgame

49.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score204pts

Blue projected score203.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.6
Score range: 163–244
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 482 vs event baseline 221.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.8Season APEX437.6

41.4Auto32.8

107.3Teleop114.2

54.1Endgame49.4

33Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	42
teleop	128	111
endgame	68	62
foul	0	20
total	247	235

Result

Final score

247 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 37.3 pts