Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

307.66 – 277.27

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

248 – 280

Prediction missed · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.2 ±16.5

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 96.6Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 92.06Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 119Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.3 ±11.6

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 22.26Rank 18Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 109.03Rank 5Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 145.98Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 120, 8718, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

307.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 120, 8718, 1038

Auto

42.2 14%

Teleop

174.3 57%

Endgame

91.1 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10208, 6964, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10208, 6964, 1787

Auto

78.0 28%

Teleop

142.9 51%

Endgame

57.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score307.7pts

Blue projected score277.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.4
Score range: 237–348
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 528 vs event baseline 220.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.2Season APEX359.3

42.2Auto78

174.3Teleop142.9

91.1Endgame57.4

21Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	62
teleop	107	155
endgame	96	63
foul	20	0
total	248	280

Result

Final score

248 – 280

Prediction missed · off by 31.2 pts