Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

464.47 – 267.57

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

397 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 141 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.9 ±11.7

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX -12.09Rank 30Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 179.91Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 296.65Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.8 ±12.4

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 104.92Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 16.3Rank 29Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 146.35Rank 7Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3193, 4611, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

464.5 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3193, 4611, 4028

Auto

99.7 22%

Teleop

240.8 52%

Endgame

122.9 27%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2603, 8145, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.6 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2603, 8145, 48

Auto

46.7 18%

Teleop

144.9 54%

Endgame

74.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score464.5pts

Blue projected score267.6pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.9
Score range: 228–504
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 220.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.9Season APEX478.8

99.7Auto46.7

240.8Teleop144.9

122.9Endgame74.6

66Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	29
teleop	235	19
endgame	98	5
foul	5	0
total	397	53

Result

Final score

397 – 53

Prediction correct · off by 141 pts