Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

193.9 – 136.14

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 437.6 ±12.7

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 104.53Rank 11Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 18.49Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 70.88Rank 12Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.9 ±15

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 34.73Rank 10Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 24.74Rank 21Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 76.67Rank 13Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4121, 10011, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.9 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4121, 10011, 5811

Auto

27.6 15%

Teleop

107.3 57%

Endgame

54.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1308, 5667, 379

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1308, 5667, 379

Auto

22.6 18%

Teleop

50.2 40%

Endgame

53.2 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score193.9pts

Blue projected score136.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.8
Score range: 96–234
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 221.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

437.6Season APEX360.9

27.6Auto22.6

107.3Teleop50.2

54.1Endgame53.2

127Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	29
teleop	134	78
endgame	39	50
foul	15	0
total	233	157

Result

Final score

233 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts