Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.62 – 195.97

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.8 ±14.1

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 59.27Rank 20Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7885Panther Tech

Season APEX 68Event APEX 18.18Rank 25Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 91.17Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 378.9 ±12.8

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 90.95Rank 6Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 50.88Rank 22Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 54.14Rank 15Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1014, 7885, 3201

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1014, 7885, 3201

Auto

42.1 25%

Teleop

105.0 61%

Endgame

24.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8222, 4085, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

196 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8222, 4085, 2399

Auto

25.0 13%

Teleop

106.8 57%

Endgame

55.4 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score168.6pts

Blue projected score196pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.3
Score range: 129–236
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 355 vs event baseline 222.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.8Season APEX378.9

42.1Auto25

105Teleop106.8

24.6Endgame55.4

81Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	21
teleop	108	85
endgame	43	45
foul	0	5
total	199	156

Result

Final score

199 – 156

Prediction missed · off by 35.2 pts