Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

368.66 – 120.25

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 108.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.3 ±11.6

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 49.88Rank 18Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 142.37Rank 5Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 176.41Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.9 ±15

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 34.98Rank 10Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 25.78Rank 21Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 59.49Rank 13Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10208, 6964, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.7 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10208, 6964, 1787

Auto

91.4 25%

Teleop

193.2 52%

Endgame

85.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1308, 5667, 379

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.3 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1308, 5667, 379

Auto

15.1 13%

Teleop

48.9 43%

Endgame

50.5 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score368.7pts

Blue projected score120.3pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 248.4
Score range: 79–410
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 225.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.3Season APEX360.9

91.4Auto15.1

193.2Teleop48.9

85.1Endgame50.5

59Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	28
teleop	77	36
endgame	18	47
foul	0	15
total	157	126

Result

Final score

157 – 126

Prediction correct · off by 108.7 pts