Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

312.09 – 127.37

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 84.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.2 ±16.5

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 107.12Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 93.21Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 111.76Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 437.6 ±12.7

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 67.92Rank 11Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 5.96Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 53.49Rank 12Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 120, 8718, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.1 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 120, 8718, 1038

Auto

53.8 17%

Teleop

182.6 59%

Endgame

73.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4121, 10011, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4121, 10011, 5811

Auto

14.8 12%

Teleop

69.9 56%

Endgame

40.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.56 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score312.1pts

Blue projected score127.4pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 184.7
Score range: 87–352
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 609 vs event baseline 222.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.2Season APEX437.6

53.8Auto14.8

182.6Teleop69.9

73.6Endgame40.9

9Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	44
teleop	172	163
endgame	116	75
foul	0	10
total	317	292

Result

Final score

317 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 84.8 pts