Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

186.31 – 252.74

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 2.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.9 ±12.8

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 97.22Rank 6Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

4085Technical Difficulties

Season APEX 74.3Event APEX 36.43Rank 22Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 52.66Rank 15Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.8 ±12.4

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 103.69Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 32.4Rank 29Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 116.65Rank 7Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8222, 4085, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.3 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8222, 4085, 2399

Auto

36.9 20%

Teleop

113.2 63%

Endgame

30.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2603, 8145, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.7 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2603, 8145, 48

Auto

45.7 18%

Teleop

138.3 55%

Endgame

66.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score186.3pts

Blue projected score252.7pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.4
Score range: 146–293
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 442 vs event baseline 222.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.9Season APEX478.8

36.9Auto45.7

113.2Teleop138.3

30.6Endgame66.5

91Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	43
teleop	88	133
endgame	74	76
foul	15	0
total	190	252

Result

Final score

190 – 252

Prediction correct · off by 2.2 pts