Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.66 – 211.39

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.3 ±11.6

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 7.83Rank 18Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 94.75Rank 5Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 133.08Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.8 ±12.4

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 89.95Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX -12.92Rank 29Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 134.36Rank 7Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10208, 6964, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10208, 6964, 1787

Auto

62.8 27%

Teleop

126.7 54%

Endgame

45.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2603, 8145, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2603, 8145, 48

Auto

43.0 20%

Teleop

111.3 53%

Endgame

56.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score235.7pts

Blue projected score211.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.3
Score range: 172–275
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 218.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.3Season APEX478.8

62.8Auto43

126.7Teleop111.3

45.8Endgame56.3

41Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	49
teleop	92	48
endgame	29	33
foul	15	30
total	180	160

Result

Final score

180 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts