Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

212.74 – 214.9

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

168 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.1 ±12.7

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 66.13Rank 20Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 62.26Rank 17Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 84.35Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 478.8 ±12.4

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 91.02Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX -12.02Rank 29Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 135.9Rank 7Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1014, 4145, 3201

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1014, 4145, 3201

Auto

52.9 25%

Teleop

107.4 50%

Endgame

53.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2603, 8145, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

214.9 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2603, 8145, 48

Auto

44.1 21%

Teleop

112.3 53%

Endgame

57.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score212.7pts

Blue projected score214.9pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.2
Score range: 173–255
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 219.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.1Season APEX478.8

52.9Auto44.1

107.4Teleop112.3

53.2Endgame57.5

81Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	38
teleop	82	107
endgame	34	51
foul	0	0
total	168	196

Result

Final score

168 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts