Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

446.64 – 279.55

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

291 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 174.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.9 ±11.7

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX -21.62Rank 30Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 174.21Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 294.05Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.3 ±11.6

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 22.14Rank 18Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 107.38Rank 5Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 150.03Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3193, 4611, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

446.6 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3193, 4611, 4028

Auto

88.5 20%

Teleop

240.6 54%

Endgame

115.7 26%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10208, 6964, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.5 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10208, 6964, 1787

Auto

73.1 26%

Teleop

148.3 53%

Endgame

59.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score446.6pts

Blue projected score279.5pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 167.1
Score range: 240–487
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 377 vs event baseline 220.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.9Season APEX359.3

88.5Auto73.1

240.6Teleop148.3

115.7Endgame59.2

68Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	29
teleop	138	52
endgame	73	0
foul	10	5
total	291	86

Result

Final score

291 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 174.6 pts