Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

289.64 – 219.31

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

153 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 91.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.2 ±16.5

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 91.3Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 84.82Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 113.52Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 468.1 ±12.7

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 68Rank 20Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 61.46Rank 17Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 89.85Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 120, 8718, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.6 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 120, 8718, 1038

Auto

37.2 13%

Teleop

154.3 54%

Endgame

92.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1014, 4145, 3201

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.3 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1014, 4145, 3201

Auto

55.0 25%

Teleop

113.7 52%

Endgame

51.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.15 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score289.6pts

Blue projected score219.3pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.3
Score range: 179–330
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 222.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.2Season APEX468.1

37.2Auto55

154.3Teleop113.7

92.4Endgame51.5

33Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	44
teleop	94	78
endgame	31	51
foul	0	0
total	153	173

Result

Final score

153 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 91.5 pts