Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.83 – 135.83

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 104 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 533.6 ±13.5

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 87.43Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 87.83Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 48.57Rank 23Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.8 ±16.5

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 36.12Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 34.71Rank 28Record 1-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 65Rank 6Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4611, 1038, 3138

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.8 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4611, 1038, 3138

Auto

38.9 18%

Teleop

133.2 60%

Endgame

49.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10011, 4269, 8222

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10011, 4269, 8222

Auto

24.3 19%

Teleop

78.2 61%

Endgame

25.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.32 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score223.8pts

Blue projected score135.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88
Score range: 100–260
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 444 vs event baseline 202.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

533.6Season APEX344.8

38.9Auto24.3

133.2Teleop78.2

49.9Endgame25.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	22
teleop	194	41
endgame	80	6
foul	0	5
total	370	74

Result

Final score

370 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 104 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable