Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

253.81 – 211.36

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 473.2 ±13.3

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 109.58Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 79.94Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 64.29Rank 20Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 443 ±14.4

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 129.76Rank 7Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 53Rank 23Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 28.6Rank 31Record 0-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1038, 120, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.8 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1038, 120, 1014

Auto

34.9 14%

Teleop

154.6 62%

Endgame

60.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 48, 3138, 5413

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.4 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 48, 3138, 5413

Auto

43.6 21%

Teleop

125.3 61%

Endgame

36.6 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score253.8pts

Blue projected score211.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.4
Score range: 170–295
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 478 vs event baseline 225.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

473.2Season APEX443

34.9Auto43.6

154.6Teleop125.3

60.7Endgame36.6

67Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	19
teleop	215	103
endgame	46	43
foul	0	5
total	308	170

Result

Final score

308 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 47.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable