Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

428.11 – 67.95

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

518 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 104.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 653.3 ±12.4

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 148.38Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 252.02Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 27.71Rank 21Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.8 ±15.7

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 8.88Rank 31Record 0-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 56.22Rank 13Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 2.85Rank 27Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4611, 4028, 5667

/ 100 compat

Projected

428.1 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4611, 4028, 5667

Auto

113.6 27%

Teleop

229.5 54%

Endgame

84.8 20%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5413, 379, 9767

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5413, 379, 9767

Auto

7.7 11%

Teleop

22.1 32%

Endgame

39.8 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.74 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score428.1pts

Blue projected score67.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 360.2
Score range: 31–465
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 705 vs event baseline 207.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

653.3Season APEX294.8

113.6Auto7.7

229.5Teleop22.1

84.8Endgame39.8

165Consistency191

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	26
teleop	288	72
endgame	149	74
foul	0	15
total	518	187

Result

Final score

518 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 104.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable