Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.87 – 153.85

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.5 ±12.7

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 59.26Rank 18Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX -7.55Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 61.16Rank 11Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.8 ±16.5

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 129.19Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 54.25Rank 16Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3777Bean City Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX -29.59Rank 32Record 0-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10208, 10011, 4121

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.9 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10208, 10011, 4121

Auto

23.3 21%

Teleop

37.7 35%

Endgame

47.7 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1038, 2172, 3777

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.9 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1038, 2172, 3777

Auto

40.7 27%

Teleop

66.0 43%

Endgame

45.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score112.9pts

Blue projected score153.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41
Score range: 75–192
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 210.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.5Season APEX326.8

23.3Auto40.7

37.7Teleop66

47.7Endgame45.8

187Consistency139

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	30
teleop	96	79
endgame	64	20
foul	0	15
total	185	144

Result

Final score

185 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable