Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.59 – 161.14

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 311

Prediction missed · off by 115.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 292.3 ±18.8

4269CardinalBots

Provisional

Season APEX 116.6Event APEX 5.69Rank 28Record 1-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 130.03Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

1308Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 84.8Event APEX 70.87Rank 10Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 459.6 ±11.7

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 77.61Rank 5Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 33.56Rank 26Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 49.97Rank 7Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4269, 8718, 1308

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.6 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4269, 8718, 1308

Auto

57.3 29%

Teleop

109.0 54%

Endgame

34.7 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6964, 9075, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6964, 9075, 48

Auto

13.5 8%

Teleop

79.8 50%

Endgame

67.8 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score206.6pts

Blue projected score161.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.5
Score range: 123–245
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 209.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

292.3Season APEX459.6

57.3Auto13.5

109Teleop79.8

34.7Endgame67.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	70
teleop	50	157
endgame	42	69
foul	5	15
total	125	311

Result

Final score

125 – 311

Prediction missed · off by 115.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable