Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

107.95 – 99.71

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.5 ±16.2

7885Panther Tech

Season APEX 68Event APEX 47.58Rank 25Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 39.7Rank 31Record 0-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX 20.67Rank 30Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 458.7 ±12.2

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 58.99Rank 12Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9767Magnificat MagnifiBots

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX 19.03Rank 27Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 21.69Rank 15Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7885, 5413, 3193

/ 100 compat

Projected

108 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7885, 5413, 3193

Auto

12.1 11%

Teleop

65.2 60%

Endgame

30.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5811, 9767, 2399

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5811, 9767, 2399

Auto

37.4 38%

Teleop

24.2 25%

Endgame

36.4 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score108pts

Blue projected score99.7pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.2
Score range: 61–147
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 219.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.5Season APEX458.7

12.1Auto37.4

65.2Teleop24.2

30.9Endgame36.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	35
teleop	11	76
endgame	10	11
foul	5	0
total	39	122

Result

Final score

39 – 122

Prediction missed · off by 45.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable