Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

338.15 – 208.77

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

462 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.5 ±12.8

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 206.67Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8222The Argonauts

Season APEX 97Event APEX 60.79Rank 6Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 95

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 70.69Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.8 ±12.7

2172Steel Unit-E

Season APEX 113Event APEX 48.74Rank 16Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4121Viking Robotics

Season APEX 129.9Event APEX 60.82Rank 11Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 99.21Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4028, 8222, 120

/ 100 compat

Projected

338.2 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4028, 8222, 120

Auto

69.9 21%

Teleop

216.0 64%

Endgame

49.4 15%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2172, 4121, 3201

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.8 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2172, 4121, 3201

Auto

38.6 19%

Teleop

97.1 47%

Endgame

70.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.46 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score338.2pts

Blue projected score208.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 129.4
Score range: 171–376
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 209.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.5Season APEX376.8

69.9Auto38.6

216Teleop97.1

49.4Endgame70.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	41
teleop	284	103
endgame	101	77
foul	5	5
total	462	226

Result

Final score

462 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 70.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable