Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

369.42 – 185.11

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

423 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.8 ±12.8

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 67.18Rank 9Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 171.49Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 130.75Rank 8Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.9 ±12.2

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 7.3Rank 17Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 117.83Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 59.98Rank 20Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2603, 1787, 1038

/ 100 compat

Projected

369.4 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2603, 1787, 1038

Auto

75.7 20%

Teleop

204.3 55%

Endgame

91.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4145, 4611, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.1 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4145, 4611, 1014

Auto

42.1 23%

Teleop

93.4 50%

Endgame

50.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score369.4pts

Blue projected score185.1pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 184.3
Score range: 148–406
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 720 vs event baseline 205.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.8Season APEX573.9

75.7Auto42.1

204.3Teleop93.4

91.9Endgame50.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	81
teleop	209	157
endgame	123	54
foul	10	5
total	423	297

Result

Final score

423 – 297

Prediction correct · off by 82.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable