Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.61 – 165.63

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

228 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.5 ±13.9

120Youth Tech Academy Red Dragons

Season APEX 146.3Event APEX 74.8Rank 2Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 61.93Rank 12Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

379The RoboCats

Season APEX 148.7Event APEX 62.88Rank 13Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 379.1 ±16.5

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 2.65Rank 24Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9075Redskin Robotics

Season APEX 157Event APEX 24.18Rank 26Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8718Tigerbotics

Provisional

Season APEX 90.9Event APEX 138.8Rank 19Record 2-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 120, 5811, 379

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 120, 5811, 379

Auto

27.2 14%

Teleop

119.1 61%

Endgame

48.0 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10011, 9075, 8718

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10011, 9075, 8718

Auto

46.3 29%

Teleop

89.0 55%

Endgame

25.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score199.6pts

Blue projected score165.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34
Score range: 129–237
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 397 vs event baseline 206.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.5Season APEX379.1

27.2Auto46.3

119.1Teleop89

48Endgame25.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	18
teleop	119	86
endgame	79	60
foul	0	5
total	228	169

Result

Final score

228 – 169

Prediction correct · off by 15.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable