Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

60.35 – 52.1

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

256 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 100.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.9 ±14.1

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 9.27Rank 5Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3201Ross Rambotics

Season APEX 133.9Event APEX 48.82Rank 14Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7885Panther Tech

Season APEX 68Event APEX 2.26Rank 25Record 2-3-0Status establishedConfidence 79

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 209.7 ±17.1

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 16.32Rank 18Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5413Stellar Robotics

Season APEX 71.5Event APEX 33.52Rank 31Record 0-5-0Status establishedConfidence 79

3777Bean City Bots

Provisional

Season APEX 70.8Event APEX 2.26Rank 32Record 0-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6964, 3201, 7885

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6964, 3201, 7885

Auto

18.8 33%

Teleop

16.8 30%

Endgame

20.9 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10208, 5413, 3777

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10208, 5413, 3777

Auto

9.9 22%

Teleop

34.0 76%

Endgame

0.6 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score60.4pts

Blue projected score52.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.3
Score range: 14–98
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 303 vs event baseline 212.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.9Season APEX209.7

18.8Auto9.9

16.8Teleop34

20.9Endgame0.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	20
teleop	159	12
endgame	43	15
foul	0	0
total	256	47

Result

Final score

256 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 100.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable