Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

414.57 – 225.34

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

448 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 68 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.9 ±11.7

3193Falco Tech

Season APEX 88Event APEX -35.15Rank 30Record 1-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 157.93Rank 4Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 291.79Rank 1Record 5-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.3 ±11.6

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 4.7Rank 18Record 3-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 90.95Rank 5Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 129.69Rank 3Record 4-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3193, 4611, 4028

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.6 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3193, 4611, 4028

Auto

85.0 21%

Teleop

219.0 53%

Endgame

107.0 26%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10208, 6964, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.3 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10208, 6964, 1787

Auto

59.2 27%

Teleop

120.5 54%

Endgame

42.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.45 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score414.6pts

Blue projected score225.3pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample84alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189.2
Score range: 186–454
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 776 vs event baseline 217.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.9Season APEX359.3

85Auto59.2

219Teleop120.5

107Endgame42.7

43Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	87
teleop	233	145
endgame	93	96
foul	0	0
total	448	328

Result

Final score

448 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 68 pts