Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

330.87 – 374.51

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

572 – 309

Prediction missed · off by 153.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.7 ±11

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX -13.05Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 169.97Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 173.95Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592.8 ±15.6

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 160.88Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 150.3Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

554The Blue Grease Crew

Provisional

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 63.33Rank 13Record 6-3-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6964, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.9 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 6964, 4096, 2338

Auto

62.0 19%

Teleop

178.2 56%

Endgame

79.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4611, 6237, 554

/ 100 compat

Projected

374.5 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 4611, 6237, 554

Auto

62.7 17%

Teleop

245.1 67%

Endgame

59.8 16%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score330.9pts

Blue projected score374.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.6
Score range: 289–417
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 881 vs event baseline 234.8.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.7Season APEX592.8

62Auto62.7

178.2Teleop245.1

79Endgame59.8

39Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	117	67
teleop	330	144
endgame	120	78
foul	5	20
total	572	309

Result

Final score

572 – 309

Prediction missed · off by 153.3 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.