Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

422.72 – 452.27

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

529 – 418

Prediction missed · off by 70.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.6 ±11.2

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 199.51Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 218.1Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 5.11Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.9 ±11.7

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 98.24Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 193.82Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 160.21Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 4028, 8145

/ 100 compat

Projected

422.7 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 4028, 8145

Auto

66.6 16%

Teleop

224.5 53%

Endgame

130.2 31%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2614, 2252, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

452.3 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 2614, 2252, 1787

Auto

89.2 20%

Teleop

247.5 56%

Endgame

103.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score422.7pts

Blue projected score452.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.5
Score range: 381–494
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 947 vs event baseline 231.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.6Season APEX571.9

66.6Auto89.2

224.5Teleop247.5

130.2Endgame103.5

9Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	97
teleop	268	192
endgame	135	129
foul	35	0
total	529	418

Result

Final score

529 – 418

Prediction missed · off by 70.3 pts

Match videos

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