Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

296.08 – 366.21

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

292 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477.2 ±13.3

4145WorBots

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 120.3Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1038Lakota Robotics

Season APEX 143Event APEX 133.25Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1014Bad Robots

Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 42.53Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638.3 ±12.9

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 115.9Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 126.2Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 124.11Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4145, 1038, 1014

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.1 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4145, 1038, 1014

Auto

59.3 21%

Teleop

161.5 56%

Endgame

65.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5811, 4467, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.2 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 5811, 4467, 117

Auto

60.4 17%

Teleop

201.8 56%

Endgame

95.9 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 79%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.43 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score296.1pts

Blue projected score366.2pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 79%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -70.1
Score range: 254–408
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 649 vs event baseline 230.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477.2Season APEX638.3

59.3Auto60.4

161.5Teleop201.8

65.5Endgame95.9

134Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	87
teleop	145	185
endgame	49	85
foul	0	0
total	292	357

Result

Final score

292 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 6.6 pts

Match videos

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