Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

292.87 – 212.16

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

339 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587 ±11.7

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 94.8Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 122.91Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 75.16Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.3 ±13.9

10208Mayhem Manufacturing

Season APEX 67.4Event APEX 42.72Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3138Innovators Robotics

Season APEX 150.9Event APEX 67.02Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2228CougarTech

Season APEX 113Event APEX 102.42Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1756, 2399, 2603

/ 100 compat

Projected

292.9 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 1756, 2399, 2603

Auto

44.6 15%

Teleop

166.4 57%

Endgame

80.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10208, 3138, 2228

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.2 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10208, 3138, 2228

Auto

35.4 17%

Teleop

107.8 52%

Endgame

63.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.23 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score292.9pts

Blue projected score212.2pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.7
Score range: 171–334
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 229.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587Season APEX331.3

44.6Auto35.4

166.4Teleop107.8

80.8Endgame63.7

68Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	46
teleop	189	127
endgame	102	76
foul	0	0
total	339	249

Result

Final score

339 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 41.5 pts

Match videos

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