Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

392.33 – 368.44

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

399 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 567 ±13.5

4611OZone

Season APEX 239.7Event APEX 160.99Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6237Martin Motion

Season APEX 199.9Event APEX 151.78Rank 3Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5667The Digital Eagles

Season APEX 127.4Event APEX 79.56Rank 33Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638.3 ±12.9

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 116.44Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 127.04Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 124.96Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4611, 6237, 5667

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.3 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 4611, 6237, 5667

Auto

71.2 18%

Teleop

227.4 59%

Endgame

89.3 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5811, 4467, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

368.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 5811, 4467, 117

Auto

57.3 16%

Teleop

217.0 59%

Endgame

92.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score392.3pts

Blue projected score368.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.9
Score range: 327–433
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 757 vs event baseline 227.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

567Season APEX638.3

71.2Auto57.3

227.4Teleop217

89.3Endgame92.5

58Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	68
teleop	264	161
endgame	43	104
foul	5	25
total	399	358

Result

Final score

399 – 358

Prediction correct · off by 8.6 pts

Match videos

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