Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
287.19 – 304.4
45%55%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
438 – 288
Prediction missed · off by 83.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.7 ±11
Season APEX 82Event APEX -28.39Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 155.39Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 160.19Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 477.2 ±13.3
Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 122.39Rank 20Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 143Event APEX 138.35Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 183.9Event APEX 43.66Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6964, 4096, 2338
76
/ 100 compatProjected
287.2 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 6964, 4096, 2338
Auto
68.9 25%
Teleop
124.0 46%
Endgame
78.7 29%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4145, 1038, 1014
78
/ 100 compatProjected
304.4 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 4145, 1038, 1014
Auto
47.0 16%
Teleop
185.3 64%
Endgame
58.6 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.95
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score287.2pts
Blue projected score304.4pts
Red win probability45%
Event bonus sample182alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 79%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -17.2
- Score range
- 246–345
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
609.7Season APEX477.2
68.9Auto47
124Teleop185.3
78.7Endgame58.6
73Consistency130
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 55 | 94 |
| teleop | 294 | 109 |
| endgame | 84 | 85 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 438 | 288 |
Result
Final score
438 – 288
Prediction missed · off by 83.6 pts
Match videos
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