Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

378.14 – 324.26

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

452 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 66.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 609.7 ±11

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 5.27Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 186.89Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 185.98Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587 ±11.7

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 87.04Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 130.3Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 106.92Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6964, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.1 pts

~2.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 6964, 4096, 2338

Auto

72.2 20%

Teleop

203.5 55%

Endgame

93.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2603, 2399, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2603, 2399, 1756

Auto

48.0 15%

Teleop

174.4 54%

Endgame

100.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score378.1pts

Blue projected score324.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.9
Score range: 280–422
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 718 vs event baseline 244.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

609.7Season APEX587

72.2Auto48

203.5Teleop174.4

93.9Endgame100.1

20Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	39
teleop	194	143
endgame	130	84
foul	5	0
total	452	266

Result

Final score

452 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 66.1 pts

Match videos

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