Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

305.75 – 444.41

15%85%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

423 – 314

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 587 ±11.7

2603Steel Stingers

Season APEX 155.9Event APEX 80.16Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2399The Fighting Unicorns

Season APEX 207.6Event APEX 124.37Rank 19Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1756Argos

Season APEX 223.5Event APEX 101.22Rank 10Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 571.9 ±11.7

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 97.68Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 187.56Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1787The Flying Circuits

Season APEX 209.9Event APEX 159.17Rank 15Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2603, 2399, 1756

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.8 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2603, 2399, 1756

Auto

47.4 16%

Teleop

168.4 55%

Endgame

87.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2614, 2252, 1787

/ 100 compat

Projected

444.4 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2614, 2252, 1787

Auto

92.5 21%

Teleop

239.9 55%

Endgame

104.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.07 · Blue 2.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score305.8pts

Blue projected score444.4pts

Red win probability15%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -138.7
Score range: 262–488
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 737 vs event baseline 242.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

587Season APEX571.9

47.4Auto92.5

168.4Teleop239.9

87.9Endgame104.4

91Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	69
teleop	205	179
endgame	168	61
foul	0	5
total	423	314

Result

Final score

423 – 314

Prediction missed · off by 123.8 pts

Match videos

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