Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

441.39 – 384.27

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

489 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 690.6 ±11.2

695Bison Robotics

A+

Season APEX 302.1Event APEX 211.68Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4028The Beak Squad

Season APEX 286.2Event APEX 221.62Rank 1Record 8-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8145Tech Warriors

Season APEX 102.3Event APEX 8.09Rank 16Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 609.7 ±11

6964BearBots (FRC)

Season APEX 82Event APEX 6.14Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4096Ctrl-Z

Season APEX 276.4Event APEX 189.09Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2338Gear It Forward

Season APEX 251.3Event APEX 189.04Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 695, 4028, 8145

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.4 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 695, 4028, 8145

Auto

70.9 16%

Teleop

232.4 54%

Endgame

129.5 30%

Strengths

· 4028 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6964, 4096, 2338

/ 100 compat

Projected

384.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6964, 4096, 2338

Auto

74.5 20%

Teleop

211.8 57%

Endgame

87.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score441.4pts

Blue projected score384.3pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample182alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.1
Score range: 341–484
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 846 vs event baseline 240.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

690.6Season APEX609.7

70.9Auto74.5

232.4Teleop211.8

129.5Endgame87.8

4Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	63
teleop	247	169
endgame	161	125
foul	0	0
total	489	357

Result

Final score

489 – 357

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Match videos

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